An analysis of the Lebanese ceasefire

A ceasefire between Lebanon and the Israeli regime began from the first hours of today, with both sides agreeing to suspend the conventional warfare for at least two months.However, the most important question being raised in recent hours, and around which analyses are revolving, is: who won the war? What objectives did Hezbollah Lebanon have, and what was Israel pursuing?To answer this question, it is necessary first to make the exact terms of the resolution and its enforcement guarantees public, which has not yet happened. What has been published and cited so far are unofficial media reports. Until then, the results can be assessed by examining the current situation on the ground—what was and what is now.In what position did Israel agree to the ceasefire?Alongside the intense fighting in Gaza, which is the longest war in Israel’s history, consuming a large portion of the regime’s military forces and causing unprecedented damage, the biggest problem faced by Netanyahu’s government over the past 14 months was the insecurity in northern territories (with Hezbollah’s involvement in the war), and the displacement of tens of thousands of Israelis, which placed immense pressure on the regime.To resolve this crisis (as the primary objective) and to destroy and disarm Hezbollah (as the secondary objective), Israel attacked southern Lebanon and Beirut’s Dahiyeh area. However, the result of these attacks was the spread of insecurity to other areas, such as Haifa and even Tel Aviv.Hezbollah increased the range of its projectiles step by step, and in recent days, even Tel Aviv and Ashdod (near Gaza) were targeted. (The largest Hezbollah attacks during these 14 months occurred just days before the ceasefire.)Thus, Israel realized that by invading southern Lebanon, it not only could not restore security to northern occupied Palestine, but also exacerbated the insecurity. Moreover, its other declared goals, like destroying Hamas and freeing prisoners in Gaza, were not achieved.On the other side of the battlefield, why did Hezbollah accept the ceasefire?Hezbollah entered the battle with Israel on October 7, 2023 (Al-Aqsa Storm), with one main goal: to prevent Israeli pressure on Gaza and stop it.As one of the most important members of the Axis of Resistance, Hezbollah could not remain silent in the face of Israel’s attack on Gaza, especially considering the lack of full preparedness for a widespread war. Given its identity and humanitarian duty to support resistance and the Palestinian people, Hezbollah took action.However, it was clear that Hezbollah did not intend to enter a full-scale war, and its limited—though calculated—attacks on military border centers and Israeli army outposts reflected this.Still, Hezbollah’s leaders predicted that this conflict might eventually escalate into a ground war.In this full-scale battle, some of Hezbollah’s operational forces, including commanders and senior leaders like Sayyid Hassan Nasrallah, were martyred in unprecedented airstrikes by the Israeli army on Beirut. This created a leadership vacuum within Hezbollah’s resistance, something that didn’t even happen during the 33-day war.Although Hezbollah is structured in a way that it can continue its operations even with the martyrdom of its secretary-general, it is undeniable that restoring its former strength in both security, military, and political spheres (internally) requires time.With the deadlock on the battlefield, both sides agreed to a ceasefire. Had either side been in a stronger position, they would not have accepted this. The ceasefire is based on the 1701 United Nations Security Council resolution issued in 2006 after the 33-day war, which both sides accepted.Although Hezbollah was not directly involved in any negotiations, the resolution was repeatedly violated by Israel, which practically did not accept it. Hezbollah, on the other hand, also failed to implement it, especially on issues like Hezbollah being disarmed in the south and retreating behind the Litani River